If you thought your AGM was tedious, spare a thought for the 5,000-odd delegates to China’s annual Two Sessions meeting, where the national legislature and party apparatus meet to approve government policies over 10 days of speeches, votes and a palm-numbing amount of clapping.
Look behind the bureaucracy, though, and you’ll see a masterclass in playing the long game: China’s industrial and geopolitical strategies span until 2049.
The success this long-term thinking has brought – China’s leader Xi Jingping committed a decade ago to make the country world class in AI, chips and electric cars and batteries; it’s largely worked – should serve as inspiration not just to Western governments, but businesses too.
For too long, we’ve imbibed the idea that markets and technologies change so quickly that you can’t possibly make a five-year plan, let alone a 25-year plan.
But this misses the point. You may not be able to map out every eventuality, but you can certainly orient yourself towards a long-term goal. Agility is necessary for how you get there, but it’s not the end in itself, otherwise all you have is directionless opportunism.
Today is a particularly good time to start thinking again about your long game. We’ve just come through five years of extraordinary upheaval: a once-in-a-century pandemic, the end of peace in Europe and the return of inflation, the faltering of globalisation, Brexit and now the fraying of the Atlantic alliance.
What will the world look like in another 5, 10 or 20 years, and what role would your business play in that world? Which trends are tectonic, moving with clear direction and inevitability, and which are contingent, blowing in the wind?
Answering these questions is never easy, and always comes with the risk of being wrong. But in some respects, the level of uncertainty is actually going down.
We’re no longer in crisis mode. Black swans aside, we can broadly see where geopolitics and macroeconomics are going. The new normal may not be as stable or as pleasant as it was a decade ago, but at least it no longer shocks us. And businesses are run by practical people; we adapt to our circumstances.
There are obviously still uncertainties – will Russia’s threat to Europe intensify or subside? Will AI usher in a golden age of growth or bring us back to mass unemployment and tech bro robber barons? – but there’s no excuse not to look to the horizon as we navigate these changes.
My personal take?
People will always matter, no matter how good AI gets. Leadership will always matter, particularly as companies confront a more turbulent world. If anything, the premium on having the best people, and the right people, on your side will only grow.
That gives me some certainty as I look ahead to my own long game. What gives you yours?
Orlando
